Putinisation in Eastern Europe: the Tasks Undone

Eastern Europe is back from the economic brink. But some political trends are gloomy

From The Economist

DOOM-MONGERS are eating their hats. Despite their worst predictions, not one of the ex-communist countries of eastern Europe has so far defaulted or even devalued. Indeed, most are seeing a recovery from the financial crisis that a year ago seemed likely to herald not just economic collapse but political turmoil too. Some of the success stories are remarkable: Poland's continuing economic growth, Latvia's climb back from a deep recession and Estonia's qualification to adopt the euro (on January 1st). The latter is a huge achievement for a country that was under Soviet occupation only two decades ago.

Look more deeply though, and worries abound. Much of the recovery is thanks to swingeing spending cuts and tax hikes, often imposed at the behest of outsiders such as the IMF, and sometimes with scant regard for legality or democratic niceties. East European politicians, perhaps because of their history, are used to obeying tough instructions from outside, and imposing them brusquely. Their voters do not object much. Whereas West Europeans riot when squeezed, their eastern counterparts just glumly emigrate.

A fondness for short cuts among politicians, and resignation among voters, may have helped return the region's economy to rights, but they do not bode well for its democratic health. There is a worrying trend in eastern Europe towards what, with only some exaggeration, might be called "Putinisation": a noxious cocktail of cronyism and authoritarianism exemplified by Russia's strongman prime minister, Vladimir Putin. Political and economic power fuse, undermining independent institutions and silencing criticism. It is most visible in Ukraine, whose president, Viktor Yanukovich, has moved backwards from the "orange revolution" of 2004, edging into Russia's orbit diplomatically (shunning NATO and slowing down talks with the European Union), squeezing the media and independent universities, and showing a worrying habit of election-rigging.

Signs of the same ailment are visible in Hungary (see article), where the strong-willed prime minister Viktor Orban (pictured left with Mr Putin), backed by a huge parliamentary majority, is wielding power vigorously. He has installed a party pal as president; required public buildings to display official propaganda; restricted the powers of the constitutional court; expropriated private pension funds; and collared all the seats on a new media council (which can levy fines for ill-defined misdeeds such as offending "human dignity"). The government is now trying to nobble the central bank.

Magyar boo sucks

Hungarian voters seem unfazed by this, and outside criticism has been muted too. One reason is that Hungary will take over the EU's rotating presidency for six months in January. Its debt-sodden economy could still damage Western countries' financial systems, and many outsiders (and Hungarians) agree that tough measures are needed.

But it is not just Hungary. All over the region, reforms stalled even before the economic crisis. Public services are mostly still deplorably shoddy. The media are weak. Party fund-raising is a scandalous source of corruption. One reason is that once many east European countries got into the EU, their efforts to meet its political and economic standards slackened. At the same time, the whole idea of emulating the Western model has taken a big hit, partly from the crisis and partly from America's diminished prestige. All this is fertile ground for more Putinisation. Eastern Europe has done better than many expected economically. But undoing all communism's damage will take a lot more effort.

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