The Sofia Mayor Elections 2009: Who Is Really a Fan of Fandakova?

A New "Dynasty" in Sofia

However lackluster and predetermined the race for electing a new Mayor of the Bulgarian capital Sofia might have been, there are still some rather important observations to be made about it with respect to the political stage in the country.

Bulgaria's Education Minister, Yordanka Fandakova, won overwhelmingly with 66,23% (some 170 000 votes out of a total of 260 000) - a clear and decisive victory.

Fandakova, a former Russian teacher and high school principal, soundly defeated the "red yuppie" Georgi Kadiev from the Bulgarian Socialist Party, a Harvard University graduate who got 27,7%.

Fandakova's CV is clearly incomparable to that of Kadiev. Some other candidates such as architect Pavel Popov of the conservative RZS party, and industrialist Teodor Dechev, an independent backed by bloggers and the Greens, also had very impressive qualifications, possibly more impressive than those of Fandakova. How come it was her who got elected?

About the time the election campaign kicked off in October, I was talking to a leading Bulgarian journalist and analyst, who was telling me that Fandakova was the certain winner. Even though I thought the same thing, I did object that Kadiev might also have a shot at winning given his rather impressive record. (In one of his somewhat overbearing comments during the campaign, Kadiev said he was an economist whereas Fandakova was (just) "a teacher".)

Boyko Borisov is the man behind the rise of new political faces such as Fandakova and Tsvetanov. Photo by BGNES

"Kadiev has a Harvard degree and a distinguished record," I told that journalist. He was laconic, “Fandakova has Boyko.”

Fandakova seems like a really nice woman but she is certainly far from charismatic, and there is no doubt she is making her way in Bulgarian politics - as are hundreds of other new faces - thanks to the huge popularity and powerful charisma of the GERB party leader, Boyko Borisov, Bulgaria’s former top cop (2001-2005), and former Sofia Mayor (2005-2009) whose rise to the Prime Minister job in July 2009 vacated the Mayor seat in the capital.

Many commentators in Bulgaria, especially those on the left, have been quick to say that through Fandakova’s election, Borisov de facto remains Sofia Mayor while being also the country’s Prime Minister.

Because Borisov did actually point to Fandakova as the new Sofia Mayor in a move that can be likened to Napoleon making his brother Joseph Bonaparte King of Spain 200 years ago, or to Vladimir Putin making Dmitry Medvedev the next Russian President 2 of years ago.

Between 1995 and 2009, the Sofia Mayor was Stefan Sofiyanski – a charismatic rightist politician, who was elected in 1995 by a landslide, and then reelected in 1999 and 2003. The Sofia residents literally "crowned" him as Sofia Mayor with so many reelections.

It was Sofiyanski's decision to quit in order to become a MP in 2005 that opened the way for Boyko Borisov’s rise to the Sofia Mayor position with his staggering win in the 2005 by-elections. Thus, a new Sofia Mayor dynasty has emerged - with Borisov getting reelected in 2007, and then endorsing Fandakova as his successor in 2009.

The fact of the matter, however, is that while Borisov did clearly point to his successor, an overwhelmingly high number of Bulgarian voters confirmed her into office without any reservations over the fact that she is "just a teacher." So Borisov is either doing things right in Bulgaria, or he is doing them wrong but the Bulgarians are too blind to see that. It is way too early to say which is true but the majority of Bulgarians seem to think it is the first.

There is little doubt that those who voted Fandakova Sofia Mayor were actually voting for Borisov again. Photo by BGNES

"We could've just appointed Mrs. Fandakova," Borisov himself stated during the Election Night news conference, apparently with full awareness that it was his immense popularity that made the election result absolutely clear to predict.

It was pretty much as the people in Sofia were voting for Borisov again. In 2005, in the runoff he got 68,5% (224 000 votes) with a turnout of 33%; in 2007, he got elected in the first round with 53,6% (203 300 votes) with a turnout of 36,5%; Fandakova got 66,23% (171 000) with a turnout of 23,17%.

The big question here is: is there anything wrong with naming a successor? Technically, there isn't – Fandakova was endorsed and democratically elected. Morally? Probably not as well, at least it seems so for the time being. The Bulgarians just backed the candidate of the person they trust.

And if that is what it takes for things to finally happen in Bulgaria and in Sofia – i.e. having the Sofia Mayor be a protege, even a figurehead of the Prime Minister - if that makes things right, it is safe to say that most Bulgarians in Sofia and around the country would say, "Fine by Me!"

Because his time as Sofia Mayor, Borisov was constantly complaining about objective factors hindering his work. First, in 2005-2007, he did not have support in the Sofia City Council, and then, after he got it with his party's win in 2007-2009, the Socialist-led three-way coalition government of Sergey Stanishev was obstructing him since it feared his rise, in his own words.

Today, he has the majority in the City Council, he is in charge of the government, and has promised that his successor would be getting all the support and state co-funding for worthy projects that she needs. So hopefully there will no one to obstruct his work any more. It is just that it is yet to be seen what will happen.

This whole episode with Borisov's nominee for Mayor and the relations between the Sofia Municipality and the Bulgarian government touches upon a greater debate about the role of local authorities and mayors in Bulgaria. What role does a mayor really play, aren’t a mayor’s powers way too limited, what can they do without the support of a politically obstructive city council or, even worse, a government?...

So for the time being Fandakova probably deserves more than just the benefit of a doubt; it is yet to be seen if she can handle Sofia better than people with Harvard degrees.

One thing seems indisputable though - in addition to the Sofia Mayor race, the GERB party also won overwhelmingly the by-elections in the northwest city of Vratsa and the town of Pravetz, and their candidate is the leader for the runoff in Razlog. The only win of Sunday's by-elections that GERB's main competitor carried was the mayor seat in the village of Beglezh near Pleven – a place of less than 700 inhabitants.

Borisov has interpreted those landslide successes around the country to mean that he had done fine in his first 100 days. The next several hundred days will show it that is true.

Kadiev's 70 000 votes were interpreted as a significant success by the Socialist Party leadership. Photo by BGNES

Fallen Comrades: The Defeated Winners

Georgi Kadiev, the candidate of the Socialists for Sofia Mayor got only 27,7% of the votes in Sofia, or some 71 000 votes out of 1 110 000 eligible ones. Clearly, as polls have proved, he even attracted some votes of traditionally rightist voters thanks to his impressive record. Yet, Kadiev was too far away even from making it to a runoff.

Believe it or not, however, the Bulgarian Socialist Party leaders interpreted these election results as some kind of a success.

This was clearly stated in the Election Night news conference by both Sergey Stanishev, the former Prime Minister who suffered a staggering loss in the July 2009 Parliamentary Elections after 4 years in power, and who was recently reelected as BSP Chair at its October "emergency" congress under dubious circumstances, and by Rumen Ovcharov, Stanishev's deputy, who was forced to resign as Economy Minister in 2007 over allegations of abuses and murky deals.

So basically, after four years in power the Socialists got 70 000 votes in the largest Bulgarian city and a win in the northern village of Beglezh. I would have hard time feeling successful in that situation but the fallen comrades seem to be doing fine.

Stanishev and Ovcharov believe those 70 000 voters are some kind of a unyielding core, that the party has been stabilized, that it won't be retreating any more, whereas the election results clearly indicate that Borisov's popularity is on the wane(?!).

And they did not miss the chance to slam the Prime Minister for the reduced social spending bashfully forgetting to mention that it was their unrealistic 2009 budget (predicting an economic growth of 4,5% in a year of desperate economic crisis!), and their pork barrel spending in the months before the elections which depleted completely the budget surplus, and brought a rising deficit.

What is more, the Stanishev and the other Socialist leaders are employing a rhetoric which is more suitable for the 1930s: they keep alluding to some kind of lurking fascism and claim that Borisov is going to establish authoritarian rule.

The sad truth for the Socialists is that their candidate Georgi Kadiev might have actually done better if he had run on his own. The party and its new old leadership do not seem capable of much reform against the really strong interests involved with it - the very same way they proved incapable of reform of both the BSP and the Bulgarian state during their four-year rule.

On top of that, the major population group to which Stanishev and the others are generally appealing by painting a welfare apocalypse in the coming months, and describing GERB as a Brown Shirt party is that of the pensioners longing for the "good old times" - a group of people which is gradually and literally dying off.

The Socialists have been beaten by Borisov in six elections already - local elections in 2005, 2007, and 2009; EU Parliament election in 2007 and 2009, and Parliamentary Elections in 2009. The only exception was the 2006 Presidential race from which Borisov abstained for the most part. They are yet to try to figure out how to meet the challenge of this politician who has attracted many of their former voters, among others. Unless Borisov really messes up, they are going to have a hard time being successful.

 

Other Voices

There are some other sides to this story different from Borisov's GERB and the Socialists. For example, the conservative party RZS and its candidate architect Pavel Popov got 7 000 votes, and its leader Yanev decided to claim it had become an "insurmountable" factor in Bulgarian politics.

Then there are the rightists from the Blue Coalition and the nationalists from Ataka who backed Fandakova so they were not exactly put to the elections test this time.

A cool trivia fact is that there were a total of 18 candidates for Sofia Mayor, most of them coming from parties with really cool, though anachronistic names, such as Bulgarian Left, Bulgarian National-Radical Party, Socialist Youth Union, Bulgarian Workers' Party – Communists, Bulgarian Democratic Community, United Party of Pensioners of Bulgaria, Bulgarian Communist Party, Bulgarian Workers-Socialist Party, Libertas Bulgaria, Bulgarian Workers-Peasants' Party!?!!!

One candidate who probably deserved a lot more attention than he got was Teodor Dechev, an independent technocrat supported by bloggers and the Greens.

At the end of the day, though, it all boiled down to Boyko Borisov and the really high hopes that Bulgarians have for him. Once again. The way they did for Kostov in 1997, for Saxe-Coburg in 2001, and even for Stanishev in 2005. Of all those, Borisov seems to be best at communicating with people and retaining "people's love". Yet, he will really, really have to do a lot more than that if he is to prove any different.

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