Irish Examiner Journalist Paul O'Brien: Ireland Lisbon Treaty Referendum Shows EU Gets Its Way

Paul O'Brien, Political Correspondent of The Irish Examiner. Photo by The Irish Examiner

Exclusive Novinite.com Interview with Paul O’Brien, Political Correspondent of The Irish Examiner, on the outcome of the second referendum in Ireland which led to the ratification of EU’s Lisbon Treaty.

 

Is the rather high percent of Irish voters supporting the Lisbon Treaty is a surprise? Had a “no” vote been just as likely until the last minute?

The very large margin of victory is a slight surprise, but the opinion polls leading up to the referendum had indicated that a clear win for the “Yes” side was likely. So it is not the case that a “No” vote had been as likely until the last minute.

What factors tipped the scales in favor of the Treaty? (i.e. the information campaign; the legal guarantees by the European Council for “opt-outs” on abortion, taxation, and military neutrality; Ireland’s dependence on EU bailout aid because of the financial crisis; the sheer pressure by the rest of the EU?) Which of those factors would you single out as the most important one for the “yes” vote, and why?

First and foremost, the “Yes” side improved their campaign this time round, and that helped tipped the scales in favour of the treaty.

Secondly, the campaign message was much more consistent – it focused on the economy, and spelled out the message that recovery would not be possible without the EU. They were the single most important factors.

After that, the fact that we had received the guarantees from our EU partners helped the “Yes” side also - because it meant taxation, abortion and neutrality never really became major issues of controversy during the campaign.

Declan Ganley, the leader of the Libertas Party and major opponent of the Lisbon Treaty ratification, has commented that the Irish were scared, and supported the Treaty out of fear? Do you think that is a fair description of the affirmative vote?

I think the suggestion that fear played a part in the “Yes” vote is accurate. Irish people right now are fearful for their jobs, their homes, their children, their futures. So when voters were told that Ireland could be left behind in Europe if it voted no, I think that weighed heavily on people's minds.

Have the Irish voters made a compromise with their position by reversing their own earlier vote, or is this a manifestation of the more acute realization that Ireland is much better off with the EU?

I think many “Yes” voters simply believed we are better off being fully engaged with the EU, and voted accordingly.

Is it fair to say the Lisbon Treaty got ratified in Ireland thanks to the economic crisis? Would the Irish voters still back it if it had not been for the crisis, and the aid from the Ireland got from the EU?

As indicated above, I think the economy was the major issue in this campaign.

The Irish voters were bold enough to say “no” in 2008, and they have now passed the Lisbon Treaty only after securing opt-outs. What are the lessons from the whole Irish experience with the Lisbon Treaty ratification for the EU as a whole, and for the smaller EU states?

I think the experience for smaller member states is that the EU gets its way in the end. Within a short time of the Irish rejection of the treaty last year, it was made very clear by the EU that the treaty was not considered "dead" and that the Irish would have to vote again.

And yes, we got some concessions - ie, the legal guarantees and the retention of our commissioner. But not a single word of the treaty was changed. And I think that indicates what smaller member states can expect on issues such as this.

By contrast, there is a feeling amongst some in Ireland that if a large member state such as France, for example, had rejected Lisbon last year, the treaty would have been dead and the EU would have had to go back to the drawing board.

Is the “yes” vote going to repair some negative effects that Ireland might have suffered as a result of the first referendum?

The Government certainly hopes so. But only time will tell, I think.

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