Day 537 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Russia might be Preparing a New Wave of Mobilization

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Day 537 of the invasion of Ukraine. Summary of key events in the last 24 hours:

• The Netherlands and Denmark raised F-16 fighter jets because of Russian bombers
• Ukraine believes that Russia is preparing a new wave of mobilization
• Poland arrested Russians who recruited for PMC "Wagner" in Warsaw and Krakow
• Seven civilians died in Mariupol after a shootout between the Russian military and Kadyrov's men
• The Kremlin blamed the central bank for the collapse of the ruble
• New Russian missile and drone attacks in Zaporizhzhia and Odesa
• An entire family died in Russian strikes against Kherson
• A day of mourning in Kherson after the death of two children
• Scholz calls for talks with Russia, does not promise more weapons for Ukraine

The Netherlands and Denmark raised F-16 fighter jets because of Russian bombers

The Netherlands and Denmark raised F-16s because of two Russian bombers entering Dutch airspace. Russian planes turned around before violating NATO airspace over the North Sea, Nova TV reported.

A statement from the Royal Netherlands Air Force said two of its F-16 fighter jets were raised at 07:19 a.m. local time after receiving information that Russian jets were approaching the country's airspace.

"This does not happen often, but today's incident demonstrates the importance of rapid deployment of forces," the statement said.

A spokesman for the Royal Air Force noted that the plan to intercept foreign aircraft was carried out if they had not provided a preliminary flight plan and did not have a unique identification code.

He also stressed that Russian planes often violate or approach Dutch airspace.

Ukraine believes that Russia is preparing a new wave of mobilization

Ukraine believes that Russia is preparing a new wave of mobilization. The UNIAN agency quoted Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense:

"According to our estimates, the Kremlin plans to mobilize several hundred thousand people for the war in Ukraine in order to preserve the occupied territories and continue the military pressure on our country," says Skibitsky.

According to him, mass mobilization is an unpopular decision for Putin's regime, but the Kremlin has no other way out and "has been preparing for this for a long time."

Ukrainian intelligence believes that the preparation is expressed in laws and regulations adopted that tighten the punishment for not showing up for military service and avoiding mobilization. The conscription age was also raised in Russia, the deputy head of the intelligence service recalls.

He adds that the Russian army has declared its intention to create a number of new military formations: airborne regiments, divisions, mechanized brigades, etc.

Poland arrested Russians who recruited for PMC "Wagner" in Warsaw and Krakow

Poland has arrested on its territory "headhunters" of PMC "Wagner", who recruited mercenaries for the private army of Yevgeny Prigozhin. On Monday, the Coordinating Minister of Special Services and Minister of Internal Affairs and Administration, Mariusz Kaminski, announced that the Internal Security Agency, counterintelligence, in cooperation with the police, detained the two citizens of the Russian Federation.

So far, it is difficult to say whether "Wagner" really conducted recruitment of future mercenaries on the territory of Poland or Russia and Prigozhin conducted a hybrid action aimed at generating tension in Polish society.

According to the Plenipotentiary of the Polish Government for the Protection of Information Security of Poland, Stanislaw Zharin, on behalf of PMC "Wagner", the arrested persons, who are citizens of the Russian Federation, placed in public places in Polish cities propaganda materials of the company, similar posters, leaflets and ads were detected in Krakow and Warsaw.

"The evidence gathered shows that the men received propaganda materials in Moscow along with a list of places they should visit," explained Stanislaw Zharin in a recording posted on social networks. Over 3,000 propaganda materials were found in their possession. Wagner's "human resources" specialists were particularly active in Krakow on August 11, and a day later they appeared in Warsaw, where they were detained. On the same day, after finishing the "work", the two had to leave Poland. They were taken to the prosecutor's office, where they were charged with numerous charges, including foreign intelligence activity against the Republic of Poland, as well as promoting an armed organization that aims to carry out terrorist activities. One of the charges is for supporting Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine.

By the decision of the court in Warsaw, the Russians were detained for an initial period of three months. The information collected by Poland's Internal Security Agency indicates that both were acting under orders. They reported on the work done with photo documentation of the placed advertising materials. For their work, they should have received up to half a million rubles, the equivalent of about 4,400 euros. Polish services assess the actions of the two Russians as part of the hybrid war that Russia is waging against Poland and an attempt to influence public opinion in Poland.

Seven civilians died in Mariupol after a shootout between the Russian military and Kadyrov's men

Seven civilians died in Mariupol after a shootout between the Russian military and "Kadyrovites". This was announced by the adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, Pyotr Andryushchenko, quoted by the Russian version of Radio "Free Europe". According to him, there are two teenage girls among the dead civilians.

The shooting took place in Urzuf, a village on the outskirts of Mariupol, and at least four Russian soldiers were killed.

The press minister of Chechnya, Ahmad Dudayev, described the information as "false" and stated that "no representative of the Chechen people has anything to do with this incident." At the same time, he did not deny the shootout itself, "Kavkaz.Realii" points out.

According to Andryushchenko, the "Kadyrovites" arrived in Urzuf for rest - the village is located on the coast of the Sea of Azov. There, the Chechen military came into conflict with Russian occupiers.

The channel "Telegram" ASTRA writes that journalists of the media contacted the pro-Russian leader of the village Ivan Topuzov, who confirmed that there were several dead after the shootout.

The Kremlin blamed the central bank for the collapse of the ruble

President Vladimir Putin's economic adviser Maxim Oreshkin blamed the central bank for the collapse of the Russian currency, which fell below 100 rubles to the dollar on Monday. According to him, the loose monetary policy led by the bank is to blame for the depreciation of the Russian currency.

The ruble, which has lost about a quarter of its value against the dollar since Putin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, hit 100.9950 to the dollar on Monday, its weakest point in nearly 17 months.

The Russian currency also lost ground on Monday against the euro, trading at 110.44 per euro, down 1.5%, and against the Chinese yuan at 13.87 (cheaper by 1.3%) from March 2022.

In an article for the state news agency TASS, Oreshkin says the Kremlin wants a strong ruble and expects intervention. This could prompt the central bank to act before the next planned decision on setting the key interest rate on September 15, writes "Reuters".

"The main source of the weakening of the ruble and the acceleration of inflation is the soft monetary policy," writes Oreshkin. "The central bank has all the tools at its disposal to normalize the situation in the near future and ensure that interest rates on loans will be reduced to sustainable levels."

Oreshkin adds: "The weak ruble complicates the structural transformation of the economy and negatively affects the real income of the population."

"It is in the interest of the Russian economy to have a strong ruble," says the economist.

The central bank raised interest rates by 100 basis points in July to 8.5%, holding them steady since September. Ahead of its next meeting in September, the bank has signaled that more increases are needed.

The Bank of Russia believes that the sharp fall in the ruble this year is due to the shrinking trade balance. The current account surplus fell by 85% year-on-year from January to July.

The ruble has been volatile since the start of the war, trading at 120 rubles to the dollar in March 2022 before recovering to a more than seven-year high a few months later, supported by capital controls and rising export earnings.

Before the war, the ruble traded at around 75 to the dollar.

To stop the fall of the ruble, Russia may reintroduce tighter capital controls. Another option would be to raise interest rates, something the central bank already intends to do given high inflation, but that limits the potential for economic growth and means higher borrowing rates for the government, which needs cash to finance the war.

New Russian missile and drone attacks in Zaporizhzhia and Odesa

Ukraine reported explosions from new Russian missile and drone attacks in Zaporizhzhia and Odesa, where three people were injured.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that another drone has been shot down over the Belgorod region.

An air alert was declared again tonight in a number of regions of Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv.

The country's air force said Russia had renewed attacks on the Odesa Oblast with missiles and kamikaze drones.

Air defense systems have been activated in the area and over the port city. Several fires have occurred from fallen rocket debris.

Ukraine's Black Sea ports have come under massive attacks since Russia announced in July it was withdrawing from an agreement to transport Ukrainian grain.

In Kyiv, the head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak, urged citizens not to ignore warnings of alarm.

In his address, President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that yesterday there were at least 17 reports of shelling in Kherson Oblast alone. There are seven victims, including a newborn baby. Nikolaev, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Donbas were attacked.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that air defenses shot down another drone last night over the western part of the Belgorod region.

No casualties or damage.

Yesterday it was reported that three drones were shot down over the Belgorod region and one more over the Kursk region. Local authorities blamed Ukraine for the damage to a residential building in Belgorod.

An entire family died in Russian strikes against Kherson

Seven people, including a baby and a 12-year-old child, were killed yesterday in Russian strikes in the Kherson Oblast of southern Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities said, as quoted by AFP and BTA.

Three adults and two children from the same family died in the village of Shiroka Balka, and two - in the village of Stanislav, announced the Minister of Internal Affairs Igor Klimenko.

"A husband, wife and their 23-day-old baby were killed by enemy artillery fire," Klimenko wrote on Telegram.

A 12-year-old child was seriously injured in the shelling of Shiroka Balka, he was taken to hospital, where he died.

"An entire family died in Shiroka Balka," Klimenko said, posting photos showing a column of black smoke rising above a house.

According to the same source, a total of 13 people were injured in the attacks in Kherson on Sunday.

France condemned "in the strongest possible way these attacks, which once again illustrate Russia's complete disregard for all the principles of international humanitarian law, which it grossly and repeatedly violates," a foreign ministry spokeswoman said in a statement.

Kherson is one of four Oblasts of Ukraine that Russian President Vladimir Putin declared annexed in September 2022. It remains partially under Ukrainian control, but is regularly under Russian shelling.

On the other side of the front, Ukrainian shelling caused the death of a civilian in the town of Zaytsevo, near Gorlovka, in the territories controlled by Moscow, its mayor Ivan Prikhodko said.

Another barbaric shelling by #Russia of residential area in #Ukraine’s Kherson oblast. Seven people dead. Including a 23-days-old baby.

One of the youngest “military targets” ever hit by ????????.
Burn in hell, occupiers!#RussianWarCrimes #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/yg3Zyrblbq

— olexander scherba???????? (@olex_scherba) August 13, 2023

A day of mourning in Kherson after the death of two children

A day of mourning has been declared in Kherson today for the death of the two children who were killed in a Russian attack yesterday.

A 23-day-old baby and her 12-year-old brother died in the attack. According to Ukrainian authorities, more than 500 children have been killed in Ukraine since the beginning of the war. Over 1,100 children suffered injuries of varying degrees. Most victims are in the Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, which are located near the front.

"The Russian occupiers inflicted brutal blows in the Kherson Oblast. There are victims, there are wounded. At nine o'clock in the morning, they bombarded the village of Shiroka Balka with artillery fire. Five people were killed. Among them was a baby girl, only 23 days old. Her brother, who is was only 12 years old, was taken to hospital. Unfortunately, they could not save him and he died from his injuries. The children's mother was only 39 years old and also died," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Scholz calls for talks with Russia, does not promise more weapons for Ukraine

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for more international negotiations to find a way out of the war in Ukraine, but did not commit to providing more military support to Kyiv, DPA reported.

Last week's talks on Ukraine, hosted by Saudi Arabia, were "very important" but "unfortunately only the beginning," Scholz said in his annual summer interview with Germany's ZDF television broadcast. The chancellor assessed the participation of China as particularly important.

The country, arguably Russia's biggest international partner, skipped the previous international meeting in June in Copenhagen.

"That's why it makes sense to continue the negotiations. Because they specifically increase the pressure on Russia to realize that it has gone down the wrong path and must withdraw its troops, facilitate the achievement of peace," Scholz said.

In the interview, Scholz was asked whether Berlin would agree to supply Kyiv with Taurus cruise missiles to defend itself against Russia. But in typical fashion, he made no such commitment. He replied that, as in the past, his government would consider each individual request and assess what was possible, what made sense and what Germany's contribution would be.

This comes amid criticism from the fringes of the opposition in Berlin that the permanent postponement of arms deliveries to Ukraine works in Putin's favor. Such an accusation was made by Roderich Kiesewetter, an MP from the opposition Christian Democratic Union.

In Germany, the pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz on this issue has recently increased from the ruling parties.

At the same time, Ukraine continues to pressure the German government to provide Kyiv with Taurus cruise missiles.

The attacked country needs them "to save more lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians and to speed up the liberation of its territories," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an interview with today's edition of the German tabloid Bild.

"The formula is simple: a longer range of missiles means a shorter duration of the war," he added.

With this weapon, Ukraine will be able to "reach Russian occupation forces on Ukrainian territory far beyond the front line, disrupt their logistics and destroy command centers and ammunition depots," Kuleba also said.

Supporters in Berlin see this as another clear step towards strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities. However, there is also debate over whether Kyiv may intend to use the missiles for possible strikes against Russian territory and how this can be prevented.

Earlier this month, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said it was not yet time to make a decision. Last Friday, Scholz said he had nothing new to report on the matter.

Kuleba repeated assurances that the cruise missiles will be used only within the borders of Ukraine. Fears that Ukraine could use Taurus missiles against targets on Russian territory "are groundless," he said.

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