The European Commission Again Lowered Bulgaria's Economic Growth Estimate for 2018

Bulgaria in EU | February 7, 2019, Thursday // 15:47|  views

The growth of the Bulgarian economy for the past year is below expectations in the European Commission's autumn economic forecast, the institution said today, presenting its data for the EU member states and the euro area. The projected growth for this year is lower, and remains unchanged for the following year.

In the autumn forecast, gross domestic product was expected to increase by 3.5% (3.6% expected by the International Monetary Fund and the Treasury), instead of the previously announced 3.8%. So today's growth rate, to 3.2%, is the second of the spring forecast last year.

The reason for the difference is mainly weaker than expected exports, notes the European Commission. "However, the growth rate remains well above the EU average of 1.9%," the message continues.

There is almost no change in the forecast for this and next year when GDP should grow by 3.6% per year. In autumn, growth was expected to be 3.7 and 3.6 per cent respectively.

The Commission maintains its inflation expectations over the next two years, 2% and 1.8% in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

This estimate is based on a set of technical assumptions about exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices as of January 25, 2019. For all other inputs, the forecast takes into account the information available by January 31, the commission continues.

The National Statistical Institute has not yet published an estimate for 2018, and the next week will be publishing express data for its fourth quarter.