Survey Reveals Electoral Trends in Bulgaria: GERB Dominates, WCC-DB Faces Significant Decline

A survey conducted by "Alpha Research" has unveiled significant shifts in Bulgaria's political landscape ahead of the highly anticipated National Assembly elections. The findings shed light on the complex dynamics shaping voter preferences and the evolving fortunes of political parties across the country.

According to the survey, GERB, the center-right party led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, maintains a commanding lead over its rivals, securing 25.4% of the projected vote. In contrast, "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB), a coalition formed in response to perceived government corruption and mismanagement, trails behind with 17.5% of the vote. This disparity underscores GERB's enduring popularity among certain segments of the electorate, despite facing criticism over its handling of governance issues during its tenure in power.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) and "Revival," both established players in Bulgarian politics, emerge as formidable contenders, polling at approximately 14.9% and 14.6% respectively. These parties, known for their strong regional support bases and appeals to specific demographic groups, are poised to play pivotal roles in shaping the outcome of the elections.

Meanwhile, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), a traditional leftist party with a storied history in Bulgarian politics, maintains a modest presence with 8.5% of the projected vote. However, the party faces challenges from emerging left-wing factions such as "Solidary Bulgaria" and "Levitsata," which are vying for a share of the leftist electorate disillusioned with the BSP's performance in recent years.

In the right-wing spectrum, the Blue Bulgaria coalition has secured a modest foothold with 2.5% of the projected vote. While not as prominent as its center-right counterpart GERB, the coalition represents a diverse array of conservative interests and is poised to capitalize on discontent with the current government's policies.

Expected voter turnout:

Of particular interest is WCC-DB's declining position, losing approximately 200,000 votes compared to the previous year. This decline, attributed to internal discord and public scrutiny following scandals within the coalition, poses significant challenges for the alliance as it seeks to rally support and reverse its fortunes in the upcoming elections.

Looking ahead to the European Parliament elections, projections broadly mirror the trends observed in the National Assembly vote. GERB and DPS maintain their positions as leading contenders, while "Revival" gains traction among voters. However, the fate of "There Is Such a People" (TISP), a populist party founded by TV personality Slavi Trifonov, remains uncertain, with the party hovering below the higher threshold for European vote representation.

As Bulgaria braces for the dual elections, several key questions loom large. Chief among them is the issue of voter turnout, which remains a critical factor in determining the legitimacy of elected representatives and the overall balance of power in parliament. Additionally, the fragmented political landscape raises questions about coalition formation and the potential for a competitive left-wing political entity to emerge.

In summary, the "Alpha Research" survey offers valuable insights into the intricacies of Bulgaria's political landscape, highlighting the challenges and opportunities facing parties as they vie for voter support in the upcoming elections.

The survey was conducted in the period April 25 - May 2, 2024. by Alpha Research, is published on the agency's website and is implemented with its own funds. The survey was conducted among 1,000 adults from all over the country. A stratified two-stage sample was used with a quota according to the main socio-demographic characteristics. The information was collected through a direct standardized interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.

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